According to Canada’s COVID-19 projections released earlier today, the country’s top doctor says that even with early epidemic control, multiple responses spanning the whole of 2020 will likely be required over time.
The nation’s Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam presented the models this morning saying the best-case scenario which includes a stronger epidemic control by employing even higher degrees of physical distancing and maximizing the efforts to contact trace, isolate or quarantine the most number of affected Canadians.
The Deputy Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. Howard Njoo added that with our best efforts maintained, they see that the first wave of COVID-19 infections will end closer to the end of the summer.
As for a worst-case scenario, the Chief Public Health Officer was pressed strongly but maintained that because these projections have limitations as to how they relate to real-time; a worst-case scenario is hard to come up with. Nevertheless, projections do show that if measures are not followed, and not maintained on a strict or even half-strict level, a week approach to public health controls may lead to these measures sticking around to at least the end of spring 2021.
Dr. Tam indicated that due to the different stages each province or territory is at in terms of the epidemiological curve in their respective areas, a full prediction of how long the whole of Canada will have public health measures in place is difficult to ascertain. She also adds that differences in laboratory testing and confirmation strategies explain why there is a high variation between provinces and territories.
Dr. Njoo and Dr. Tam both stressed the message that Canadians are indeed writing their own fate right now by choosing to maintain physical distancing and healthy respiratory hygiene to fight the spread of COBVID-19 and avoid the worst-case scenario at all costs.
(Files from Mo Fahim)